So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares).
Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.
The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook. The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..
To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.
So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won). We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.
The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.
The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.
NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at. Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.
College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.
Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.
Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season. All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Monday, March 14, 2011
NFL Betting Predictions and Picks
In the beginning you will want to get a better understanding of what a betting line is regarding NFL football. These NFL lines are built to set the betting for each game during the season. One team will be the favorite and the other will be the underdog. The favorite will be expected to win by a certain amount of points, so if they don't cover you can still lose the bet even if you pick the right team. So if Indianapolis is favored over New England by 6 points and you pick Indy, they have to win by 7 points in order for you to win the bet.
NFL lines can be a bit confusing, and they actually mean two different things. The line will give you an idea of which team is better and the one that should win the game. So the bigger the point spread, the more likely that team will win the game (even though they may not cover the points). It just means people believe they have a major advantage.
The second part revolves around encouraging people to place bets. Everything is setup so people feel that they want to place action on the game. This entices fans and avid gamblers on both sides to bet on one of the teams.
These are the two biggest parts when interpreting NFL lines. See, it's not just about which team is better, and it can make your football predictions a little more difficult. This is especially true if you're not really sure what you're doing. Those who are new to sports betting will find that the lines makers will set traps to entice you into a losing bet. The good news is I'm going to give you a few tips that can help you gain the advantage.
When looking at NFL lines, the first thing to consider is the home team. Enjoying home field advantage for a game is helpful to any team (even the bad ones), so the home team almost always gets 3 additional points. So anytime you examine lines or use formulas for your NFL predictions, add 3 points on the home side. Keep in mind; there are several other avenues when it comes to betting on football, especially the NFL.
Pulling up the stats will be important as well. Everything from home and away records over multiple seasons, when and where the game is being played, who they play the following week, head-to-head history, injuries, and tons of other information. It's extremely overwhelming and if you're a newcomer it can be quite difficult to master. The point is; making NFL picks is an art, and trying to figure it out on your own could be costly.
If you don't want to spend the time trying to choose a winner on your own there are several sports handicappers out there that can help. They offer plenty of advice and guidance that will help you make the best decision. Just think of them as the missing piece to your puzzle that will tilt the odds in your favor. After all, they're professionals and have the experience to help you win money.
Everything I've given you here today will give you a better understanding of NFL lines, how you can make your NFL picks, and what sports handicappers can do for you. Most fans don't know what they're doing when they place a bet, and even though they might get lucky, in the long run they will lose money. Sports betting is all about consistency, and with the right information you could make this a profitable hobby.
In order to win more than you lose when betting football, getting the latest NFL Lines lines are crucial to your success. Knowing as much about the game as possible will give you a leg up on the bookmakers. The best way to do this is by utilizing experts so you eliminate the guesswork all together. This way when you do bet you will make all the right choices.
NFL lines can be a bit confusing, and they actually mean two different things. The line will give you an idea of which team is better and the one that should win the game. So the bigger the point spread, the more likely that team will win the game (even though they may not cover the points). It just means people believe they have a major advantage.
The second part revolves around encouraging people to place bets. Everything is setup so people feel that they want to place action on the game. This entices fans and avid gamblers on both sides to bet on one of the teams.
These are the two biggest parts when interpreting NFL lines. See, it's not just about which team is better, and it can make your football predictions a little more difficult. This is especially true if you're not really sure what you're doing. Those who are new to sports betting will find that the lines makers will set traps to entice you into a losing bet. The good news is I'm going to give you a few tips that can help you gain the advantage.
When looking at NFL lines, the first thing to consider is the home team. Enjoying home field advantage for a game is helpful to any team (even the bad ones), so the home team almost always gets 3 additional points. So anytime you examine lines or use formulas for your NFL predictions, add 3 points on the home side. Keep in mind; there are several other avenues when it comes to betting on football, especially the NFL.
Pulling up the stats will be important as well. Everything from home and away records over multiple seasons, when and where the game is being played, who they play the following week, head-to-head history, injuries, and tons of other information. It's extremely overwhelming and if you're a newcomer it can be quite difficult to master. The point is; making NFL picks is an art, and trying to figure it out on your own could be costly.
If you don't want to spend the time trying to choose a winner on your own there are several sports handicappers out there that can help. They offer plenty of advice and guidance that will help you make the best decision. Just think of them as the missing piece to your puzzle that will tilt the odds in your favor. After all, they're professionals and have the experience to help you win money.
Everything I've given you here today will give you a better understanding of NFL lines, how you can make your NFL picks, and what sports handicappers can do for you. Most fans don't know what they're doing when they place a bet, and even though they might get lucky, in the long run they will lose money. Sports betting is all about consistency, and with the right information you could make this a profitable hobby.
In order to win more than you lose when betting football, getting the latest NFL Lines lines are crucial to your success. Knowing as much about the game as possible will give you a leg up on the bookmakers. The best way to do this is by utilizing experts so you eliminate the guesswork all together. This way when you do bet you will make all the right choices.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Popularity of NFL Betting Strategies
Following the NFL's rising popularity, and majority of this love for the game credited to the NFL betting strategies, it has (over the recent years) improvised over its betting standards. First, the teams that have recorded to bounce back in the league and put up an enthralling display of football at home should be taken into consideration rather than introspecting the ones have been flaunting with a triumphing momentum.
Three. This number should be the utmost priority to be shopped around, as itself governs the outcome for a larger percentage of NFL matches, and it holds the key for deciding between 2½ or 3½.
Injuries, perhaps is a gold digging facet concerning the NFL betting strategies, and the focus should be on the quarterback position. The teams are packed till their depth and many times the line has to move a larger distance if a player has been pulled out. In this case, as pivotal as the line gets, the money should be on the side with the injury.
Although the percentage of chances to win the bet are more or less ruled by a "gut feeling", there are inevitably certain NFL betting strategies that can be adopted. The strategy adopted has to be customized in accordance to the bettor's methodologies and budget. Once a definite NFL betting strategy has been adopted, one should seek a dependable Selection System and a Staking Plan that can be banked upon (and doesn't leave the bettor in a state of bankruptcy, as most betting schemes tend to do so), as these are professional faces in terms of NFL betting strategies.
However, there are only a few Staking Plans that time and again offer a chance for the bettors to bid more than what they initially started off with, since a Selection System has no control over the final results. In a nutshell, at the end of the day, it is the Lady Luck that draws the line. Therefore, it is recommended to exploit all resources, and consider any NFL betting strategy equivalent to an investment in shares or a house purchase.
Do you want to make money while watching your favourite football games? Do you want to discover the secret how do many football bettors make a living of online football betting? Me too.
Three. This number should be the utmost priority to be shopped around, as itself governs the outcome for a larger percentage of NFL matches, and it holds the key for deciding between 2½ or 3½.
Injuries, perhaps is a gold digging facet concerning the NFL betting strategies, and the focus should be on the quarterback position. The teams are packed till their depth and many times the line has to move a larger distance if a player has been pulled out. In this case, as pivotal as the line gets, the money should be on the side with the injury.
Although the percentage of chances to win the bet are more or less ruled by a "gut feeling", there are inevitably certain NFL betting strategies that can be adopted. The strategy adopted has to be customized in accordance to the bettor's methodologies and budget. Once a definite NFL betting strategy has been adopted, one should seek a dependable Selection System and a Staking Plan that can be banked upon (and doesn't leave the bettor in a state of bankruptcy, as most betting schemes tend to do so), as these are professional faces in terms of NFL betting strategies.
However, there are only a few Staking Plans that time and again offer a chance for the bettors to bid more than what they initially started off with, since a Selection System has no control over the final results. In a nutshell, at the end of the day, it is the Lady Luck that draws the line. Therefore, it is recommended to exploit all resources, and consider any NFL betting strategy equivalent to an investment in shares or a house purchase.
Do you want to make money while watching your favourite football games? Do you want to discover the secret how do many football bettors make a living of online football betting? Me too.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Real World NFL Betting Strategies
Betting on and profiting from the NFL requires a little knowledge, the right tools, and a betting strategy to make it all work. In this article I will give you the specific knowledge, describe the tools needed, and provide the only betting rule you need to know to win. What knowledge do you need? There is only one thing you really need to know. The books do not control the probabilities of the outcome the same way casinos control their games. To offset the lack of control, they charge a vig. But that lack of control is also what makes winning possible even when starting at a 2.4% monetary disadvantage.
Because the books can not control the probabilities, you can. The books use point spreads to encourage betting one way or the other. It is their feeble attempt to control the probabilities across the board. But over time, advantages can be found by betting certain spread situations that have shown a high historical probability of a win. The only tool you need to have is a chart of the spreads that will profit for you. Betting spreads without the right tools can leave you betting at under a 40% probability of winning. How many mistakes like that can your bankroll stand?
Once you understand the books do not control the edge and gain that control for yourself by using the right tools, you need a betting strategy that will allow you to take advantage of those edges over the long haul. There is only one way to bet, and that is a flat bet every time for the same amount. Anything else will prove destructive to your bankroll and eliminate any advantage you may have gained with your knowledge and tools. Always remember this: No game is worth more than any other game.
You win a lot by winning a little at a time in a lot of different ways. The risk is spread out over many smaller systems that always have an edge on every bet you place. Winning money on the NFL is easy with the right knowledge, tools, and betting strategy.
Because the books can not control the probabilities, you can. The books use point spreads to encourage betting one way or the other. It is their feeble attempt to control the probabilities across the board. But over time, advantages can be found by betting certain spread situations that have shown a high historical probability of a win. The only tool you need to have is a chart of the spreads that will profit for you. Betting spreads without the right tools can leave you betting at under a 40% probability of winning. How many mistakes like that can your bankroll stand?
Once you understand the books do not control the edge and gain that control for yourself by using the right tools, you need a betting strategy that will allow you to take advantage of those edges over the long haul. There is only one way to bet, and that is a flat bet every time for the same amount. Anything else will prove destructive to your bankroll and eliminate any advantage you may have gained with your knowledge and tools. Always remember this: No game is worth more than any other game.
You win a lot by winning a little at a time in a lot of different ways. The risk is spread out over many smaller systems that always have an edge on every bet you place. Winning money on the NFL is easy with the right knowledge, tools, and betting strategy.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
A Winning NFL Spread Betting Strategy
Most football bettors like to bet on the NFL. I am not an exception. But it is much more enjoyable now that I have discovered how to win using NFL point spreads. Over the last few years I have won between 55 and 64% of the games I bet. And many of the bets I place are based on nothing more than the point spread number and game situation.
Most bettors have no idea how they can use point spreads in the NFL to gain an advantage. They use the spread numbers only as a guide to interpreting their statistical handicapping. In other words, a point spread bet is nothing more than a guess.
If you desire to win betting on point spreads in the NFL, you need a strategy that will allow you to do it. That strategy has to be to bet on every game where the point spread number has shown a long term probability of the outcome going one way or the other. Any spread that has shown a 53% or greater win rate should be bet, and there are many that have shown such an advantage.
A winning NFL spread betting strategy uses verified information about the past performance of spreads over a long time. That information is applied by placing only bets where the advantage exceeds 53% so you are betting every game with a known advantage.
The result is that you will win money the same way the house does at every casino. They have an advantage on every bet. A winning NFL spread betting strategy will put that advantage in your favor so you can be the winner.
Sports betting on point spreads is the only opportunity in gambling that presents such an advantage to the player. But you can only take advantage of it with the right information and the strategy to apply it. Winning takes knowledge.
Most bettors have no idea how they can use point spreads in the NFL to gain an advantage. They use the spread numbers only as a guide to interpreting their statistical handicapping. In other words, a point spread bet is nothing more than a guess.
If you desire to win betting on point spreads in the NFL, you need a strategy that will allow you to do it. That strategy has to be to bet on every game where the point spread number has shown a long term probability of the outcome going one way or the other. Any spread that has shown a 53% or greater win rate should be bet, and there are many that have shown such an advantage.
A winning NFL spread betting strategy uses verified information about the past performance of spreads over a long time. That information is applied by placing only bets where the advantage exceeds 53% so you are betting every game with a known advantage.
The result is that you will win money the same way the house does at every casino. They have an advantage on every bet. A winning NFL spread betting strategy will put that advantage in your favor so you can be the winner.
Sports betting on point spreads is the only opportunity in gambling that presents such an advantage to the player. But you can only take advantage of it with the right information and the strategy to apply it. Winning takes knowledge.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Football Betting Systems
When we talk about sports investing we are not only referring to random picking of football teams and games to bet on. For the most part of the activity, a true blue sports bettor will use a solid football betting system or strategy while considering the prevailing betting odds. Most of these wagering systems are based on a specific form of rating scheme where a particular football team is assigned a numerical value based on certain critical parameters such as league ranking, recent team performance and home advantage.
If you are engaging in sports investing for the first time, it is a must that you first familiarize yourself with the dynamics and nuances of the games as well as the rules of the sport before you can start developing a solid football betting system or strategy. This task can be easily completed if you have prior knowledge or background on the sport as a tactician, informed spectator or even as a player. If it is your first time to get involved in this form of sport, it is best that you watch and carefully analyze collegiate and pro league matches so that you will learn how the games are being played.
It is true that you cannot possibly find a specific football betting system that offer a 100% winning clip. Further, these wagering systems are not created equal. You will find a wagering system that has a much better winning clip than the rest. In addition to this basic fact about wagering systems, you must also remember that a particular system or strategy that worked perfectly well in a specific football season may turnout to be a total failure in the current season. For instance, pro league football punters may analyze the team standings in forecasting the outcome of the matches. One bettor may adopt a specific football betting system that states that in situations where the home team is about 3 or more spots higher than the opposing team, then the home team will most likely come out the winner.
This betting option can be correct over the course of 3 seasons. However, this betting strategy should not be taken in absolute terms. The more seasoned sports bettors will also have to take into account goal difference, player on the injured list and current team form. These variables are considered when analyzing the betting odds that are being presented on a particular matchup.
If you are engaging in sports investing for the first time, it is a must that you first familiarize yourself with the dynamics and nuances of the games as well as the rules of the sport before you can start developing a solid football betting system or strategy. This task can be easily completed if you have prior knowledge or background on the sport as a tactician, informed spectator or even as a player. If it is your first time to get involved in this form of sport, it is best that you watch and carefully analyze collegiate and pro league matches so that you will learn how the games are being played.
It is true that you cannot possibly find a specific football betting system that offer a 100% winning clip. Further, these wagering systems are not created equal. You will find a wagering system that has a much better winning clip than the rest. In addition to this basic fact about wagering systems, you must also remember that a particular system or strategy that worked perfectly well in a specific football season may turnout to be a total failure in the current season. For instance, pro league football punters may analyze the team standings in forecasting the outcome of the matches. One bettor may adopt a specific football betting system that states that in situations where the home team is about 3 or more spots higher than the opposing team, then the home team will most likely come out the winner.
This betting option can be correct over the course of 3 seasons. However, this betting strategy should not be taken in absolute terms. The more seasoned sports bettors will also have to take into account goal difference, player on the injured list and current team form. These variables are considered when analyzing the betting odds that are being presented on a particular matchup.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
A Smart NFL Betting System?
I have found that this betting system for NFL wins about 60% of the time providing a profit every season. Hopefully it will continue and you can win also. It's very easy to learn and use so there's no excuse for not giving it a try - good luck!
First, take a look at the NFL schedule for the week and identify the underdogs playing at home.
For the underdog team playing at home, take note of the team they are playing against. What you want to do now is compare the stadium surface of the team playing at home against the stadium surface that the away team is used to playing on. I shall list all the NFL teams play surfaces below.
If the underdog team playing at home is playing on a different type of surface than the away teams home stadium, then bet for the home underdog team in the point spread to win.
Basically this NFL betting system is to bet on the underdog team playing at home versus a team that is not used to playing on that stadiums surface type. Always bet on the point spread, not the money line.
For example, if the Cleveland Browns are playing at home versus the New England Patriots and the Browns are the underdogs, then you will place a straight wager bet on the Cleveland Browns in this game as the Browns stadium has a grass surface, while the Patriots home stadium has a turf surface. The Patriots are more used to the turf surface that they play on at home, therefore their chances of winning notably lessens when they are playing on a stadium that has a grass surface.
Here are the NFL surface conditions to help you with this 63 percent winning system:
NFL Teams and Home Surface Conditions
There you have it. A simple NFL Betting System for you to use and profit from. Now, here are some additional NFL Betting System Tips to support this system. If you are new to American Sports Betting there are a couple of terms worth learning. Firstly, to bet on the money line means to bet on a team to win outright. If the team wins, you win, if it loses, you lose.
The money line has different odd values depending on the teams involved so betting on the underdog team (like in the betting system above) you'll win more and less when betting on the favourite. The other type of bet is betting on the "Point Spread". This is a form of handicapping in which odds makers predict the level of points stronger one team can be expected to be over another. So, if your bet is on a team which has a +3 in the point spread it means that even if this team loses the game by 2 points, your bet will still prevail. Again, if the team you are betting on has a - 4 point spread, then for your bet to win your team has to beat the other team by more than 4 points.
The point spread changes during the days run up to the game. As you'll be betting on the underdog with this NFL betting strategy its best to look for better value early on as opposed to wait.
First, take a look at the NFL schedule for the week and identify the underdogs playing at home.
For the underdog team playing at home, take note of the team they are playing against. What you want to do now is compare the stadium surface of the team playing at home against the stadium surface that the away team is used to playing on. I shall list all the NFL teams play surfaces below.
If the underdog team playing at home is playing on a different type of surface than the away teams home stadium, then bet for the home underdog team in the point spread to win.
Basically this NFL betting system is to bet on the underdog team playing at home versus a team that is not used to playing on that stadiums surface type. Always bet on the point spread, not the money line.
For example, if the Cleveland Browns are playing at home versus the New England Patriots and the Browns are the underdogs, then you will place a straight wager bet on the Cleveland Browns in this game as the Browns stadium has a grass surface, while the Patriots home stadium has a turf surface. The Patriots are more used to the turf surface that they play on at home, therefore their chances of winning notably lessens when they are playing on a stadium that has a grass surface.
Here are the NFL surface conditions to help you with this 63 percent winning system:
NFL Teams and Home Surface Conditions
- Arizona Cardinals Grass
- Atlanta Falcons Turf
- Baltimore Ravens Turf
- Buffalo Bills Turf
- Carolina Panthers Grass
- Chicago Bears Grass
- Cincinnati Bengals Turf
- Cleveland Browns Grass
- Dallas Cowboys Turf
- Denver Broncos Grass
- Detroit Lions Turf
- Green Bay Packers Grass
- Houston Texans Grass
- Indianapolis Colts Turf
- Jacksonville Jaguars Grass
- Kansas City Chiefs Grass
- Minnesota Vikings Turf
- New England Patriots Turf
- New Orleans Saints Turf
- NY Giants Turf
- NY Jets Turf
- Oakland Raiders Grass
- Philadelphia Eagles Grass
- Pittsburgh Steelers Grass
- St. Louis Rams Turf
- San Diego Chargers Grass
There you have it. A simple NFL Betting System for you to use and profit from. Now, here are some additional NFL Betting System Tips to support this system. If you are new to American Sports Betting there are a couple of terms worth learning. Firstly, to bet on the money line means to bet on a team to win outright. If the team wins, you win, if it loses, you lose.
The money line has different odd values depending on the teams involved so betting on the underdog team (like in the betting system above) you'll win more and less when betting on the favourite. The other type of bet is betting on the "Point Spread". This is a form of handicapping in which odds makers predict the level of points stronger one team can be expected to be over another. So, if your bet is on a team which has a +3 in the point spread it means that even if this team loses the game by 2 points, your bet will still prevail. Again, if the team you are betting on has a - 4 point spread, then for your bet to win your team has to beat the other team by more than 4 points.
The point spread changes during the days run up to the game. As you'll be betting on the underdog with this NFL betting strategy its best to look for better value early on as opposed to wait.
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